Construction’s carbon footprint to double by 2050, study warns

A new global analysis published in Communications Earth & Environment warns that the construction sector’s carbon footprint has more than doubled since 1995, and, under current trends, is expected to double again by 2050. The study, reveals that construction now accounts for 33% of all global carbon emissions, up from 20% three decades ago. The increase is primarily driven by the rapid consumption of carbon-intensive materials such as cement, clinker, bricks, and steel, which together represent over half of the industry’s emissions. Cement alone contributes 28%, highlighting its dominance in the material mix.

By 2022, the sector’s total emissions reached 12.2 gigatons of CO₂, nearly seven times the 1995 level for key unsustainable materials. Emerging economies are now the main contributors, with China responsible for almost half of all construction-related emissions and India ranking second. The study warns that, even if all other sectors achieved net-zero, the construction industry alone could exceed the annual carbon budget for keeping global warming below 1.5°C as early as 2025, and for 2°C by around 2040. This trajectory underscores the urgency of systemic change, especially in fast-developing regions where population growth fuels infrastructure demand.

Researchers advocate for an accelerated transition toward low-carbon materials and production methods. Bio-based materials such as engineered timber, bamboo, and hempcrete, as well as cement alternatives like alkali-activated materials, could substantially lower embodied emissions if deployed at scale. However, large-scale adoption will require new machinery, supportive regulations, and certification systems that ensure sustainability without compromising structural integrity. The authors conclude that transforming the material base of construction is essential to meeting the Paris Agreement goals and that without decisive intervention, the sector will make these targets unattainable within decades.

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