Study warns up to 70 % of California’s beaches may disappear

A new analysis by the Surfrider Foundation, as discussed in SFGate, indicates that up to 70% of California’s sandy beaches could be lost by 2100 if coastal erosion, sea level rise, and declining federal support for restoration persist.

The report highlights that the combination of rising seas and reduced funding for coastal programs intensifies the threat to shoreline stability. Recent cutbacks in federal contributions, particularly reductions in programs under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and proposed budget reductions at NOAA, may weaken resilience efforts along the Californian coast.

In response to escalating risk, communities in San Clemente and San Onofre have advanced localized adaptation efforts centering on nature-based strategies rather than traditional armoring. San Clemente has resisted further hard defenses along the Pacific Surfliner rail line, favoring more incremental shoreline protection. San Onofre has initiated collaborative processes funded by local entities to develop erosion mitigation planning, notably in light of its estimated $37 million in annual economic contribution.

In Ventura, a phased program of “managed retreat” has been underway at Surfers’ Point: infrastructure such as parking zones and bike paths has been relocated away from the shoreline to allow dune systems and native vegetation to stabilize the beach form. The project, initially launched two decades ago, is now entering a new construction phase slated for completion in 2026 to deliver enhanced shoreline resilience over coming decades.

The report contrasts nature-based adaptation with conventional methods. Agencies like SANDAG continue to favor periodic sand replenishment (nourishment) cycles every five to ten years to maintain beach width. However, coastal scientists cited in the report caution that such approaches, and especially seawalls or riprap, tend to degrade adjacent shoreline segments over time, worsening erosion, phenomena known as edge scour or coastal squeeze.

The study frames managed retreat as increasingly likely to be the only sustainable long-term option in many high-risk zones, even though it remains politically challenging. The Surfrider report underscores the urgency of integrating resilient beach management into state and local infrastructure planning, particularly given the compounded effects of rising seas, storm intensification, and fiscal constraints.