Global construction loses $2.5 trillion amid rising uncertainty and delivery risks

A new global report by Currie & Brown has revealed that uncertainty in project delivery has erased approximately $2.5 trillion in projected construction activity over the past year. Drawing from responses by over 1,000 decision-makers managing construction pipelines averaging $12.9 billion, the findings highlight a sector struggling to maintain confidence amid compounding challenges.

According to the Construction Certainty Index 2025, firms reported an average 13.7% financial loss on their annual construction pipeline due to factors such as cost inflation, supply chain instability, labour shortages, and energy price volatility. Nearly a quarter of all projects were cancelled, 32% were scaled down, and 29% experienced delays. Only one in five industry leaders expressed full confidence in delivering projects within budget under current conditions.

These findings correspond to systemic disruptions rather than temporary fluctuations. The report stresses that global construction, a key driver of infrastructure, housing, and economic development, now faces a structural challenge in maintaining delivery certainty.

Currie & Brown’s report outlines both external and internal contributors to the instability. Externally, construction firms continue to absorb the aftershocks of geopolitical conflicts, climate-related disruptions, and volatile commodity pricing. Internally, inefficiencies such as outdated procurement practices, incomplete designs at contract stage, and fragmented project governance exacerbate delivery risks.

The report’s foreword by Group CEO Alan Manuel underscores that today’s pressures “overlap and spread across industries and borders.” He notes that the intersection of inflation, energy volatility, and regulatory shifts magnifies project risks globally. These forces collectively drive costs, reduce trust, and heighten delivery uncertainty.

In addition, the report reveals a persistent “technology paradox.” While many firms have adopted digital tools, such as Building Information Modelling (BIM) and predictive analytics, their implementation often lacks integration into broader project strategies. As a result, technology investment remains underutilized, and data-driven decision-making is inconsistent across regions.

Currie & Brown proposes a roadmap for restoring resilience through five key strategies: aligning technology with strategic objectives, improving data confidence, rebalancing contractual risk, developing workforce capacity, and fostering collaboration. The firm is also introducing the Construction Certainty Index, a benchmark designed to track market confidence and risk trends across sectors.

The broader implications of uncertainty extend beyond individual projects. Delayed or cancelled developments translate into fewer hospitals, schools, and housing projects worldwide. As governments and private investors aim to drive energy transition and infrastructure renewal, the findings serve as a clear signal that strengthening certainty must be prioritized across the entire project lifecycle.