A University of Washington research project simulates 50 ways a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone could shake out in the northwest of the United States.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone runs from northern California to British Columbia, in the northwest part of the United States. Off the Oregon and Washington coast, the Juan de Fuca oceanic plate is slowly moving under the North American plate. Geological clues show that it last jolted and unleashed a major earthquake in 1700, and that it does so roughly once every 500 years. A huge earthquake, the so-called 'Really Big One', along the offshore Cascadia Subduction Zone could happen any day, unleashing damaging shaking in coastal Washington, Oregon, British Columbia and northern California.
In its project, the University of Washington (UW) simulates 50 different ways that a M9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone could unfold, using combinations of three factors: the earthquake's epicenter, how far inland the fault would slip and which parts of the fault would produce the most intense shaking. The third factor is a new idea relating to a subduction zone's stickiness. Earthquake researchers have become aware of the importance of "sticky points", i.e. areas between the plates that can catch and generate more shaking. This is still an area of current research, but comparisons of different seismic stations during the 2010 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake show that some parts of the fault released stronger shaking than others.
"There had been just a handful of detailed simulations of a magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake, and it was hard to know if they were showing the full range," Erin Wirth, a postdoctoral researcher who led the project, said in a statement. "With just a few simulations you didn't know if you were seeing a best-case, a worst-case or an average scenario. This project has really allowed us to be more confident in saying that we're seeing the full range of possibilities."
A video posted by UW shows how two simulated M9.0 earthquakes could affect Seattle, home of the university's main campus. Results show that the intensity of shaking can be less for Seattle if the epicenter is fairly close to beneath the city. From that starting point, seismic waves will radiate away from Seattle, sending the biggest shakes in the direction of travel of the rupture.
Overall, the results confirm that coastal areas would be the hardest hit, and locations in sediment-filled basins like downtown Seattle would shake more than hard, rocky mountaintops. Within that general framework, however, the picture can vary a lot. Depending on the scenario, the intensity of shaking can vary by a factor of 10. Still, though, all of the scenarios are related to significant damages.
The research was done as part of the M9 Project, a National Science Foundation-funded effort to figure out what a magnitude-9 earthquake might look like in the Pacific Northwest and how people can prepare.
You may view all the University of Washington images and videos by clicking here.
Source: www.washington.edu
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